According to reporting from BBC News and other international outlets, oil prices have swung sharply in recent days, reflecting investor anxiety over supply disruptions linked to the ongoing regional conflict. Prices have hovered above $100 per barrel, with spikes driven by fears that the crisis could worsen if diplomatic efforts fail.

At the heart of the crisis is the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. The ongoing war involving Iran has severely disrupted traffic through the strait, with some shipments halted entirely and insurers raising costs dramatically.

Amid the turmoil, Trump has been scrambling to broker a deal with Iran to reopen the waterway and stabilise global supply. His administration has reportedly floated a mix of diplomatic and military-backed proposals aimed at guaranteeing safe passage for oil tankers. These include international naval escorts, pressure on allies to participate in securing the route, and threats of direct action against Iranian infrastructure if access is not restored.

The crisis has also had ripple effects across oil-producing nations, including Iraq, where disrupted export routes and storage constraints have crippled production capacity. Some facilities have declared force majeure as they struggle to move crude, compounding the global supply shock.

Analysts warn that the ongoing conflict has created one of the most severe global oil crises in decades, surpassing previous energy shocks in scale. The International Energy Agency has cautioned that prolonged disruption could fuel inflation, slow economic growth, and hit developing economies hardest.

Despite last-minute diplomatic manoeuvres, markets remain unconvinced that a deal is imminent. As the deadline passes, traders are bracing for further volatility, with some forecasts suggesting prices could surge even higher if the strait remains restricted and conflict escalates.